As 90-95% of new forex traders lose money within the first 3-6 months this article helps to guide new forex traders by asking 5 questions that the forex trader needs to know prior to back-testing their forex system.
Let us jump right in...
1. What data type are you using (or going to use)?
I know this sounds strange, especially if you have experience from another market such as stocks as their generally is only one type of data source available. However, in the forex market you can have up to 4 different data types: bid, ask, mid and indicative. Each have their own little nuances.
If you would like to know more about the data types then visit the article written about the perils of indicative prices. As this will save me from having to repeat the information again and boring those who've already read it.
So, if you know you have indicative prices then you know you're in for some good results! However, if you have any of the other three you need to be careful on how stop and limit orders are placed.
As an example: If we had bid price history and we were looking to place a buy entry stop at 0830 EST according to the day's high, then we know that the bid price will not accurately reflect what the actual price of our order should be. You would have noticed that if you placed a buy entry stop at the exact same price as that of the day's high you would have entered prematurely - you would have entered 4 or 5 pips before the high or the low of the day was touched (the exact same amount as the spread your broker offers!).
This leads me into the next most important question...
2. What spread is your broker offering on the currencies you are bask-testing?
You need to know this as this can help you set your slippage settings on each currency.
As our example in question 1 pointed out. We found that our buy at the day's high method did not exactly work because we bought at the BID PRICE high, not the ASK PRICE high - the price that we need when we place our order TO BUY.
Therefore, we enter in a slippage setting representing the spread that would be exhibited by this trade on this currency.
But knowing at what price to buy is only half the problem... how do we know what quantity to buy?
3. What margin does your broker offer?
If we know at what price to buy our currency at we need to inform our broker on what quantity to buy to fulfill the order. We only know what quantity to buy by the margin that the brokerage firm offers.
Most brokerage firms offer 100:1 leverage, however, some firms offer mini accounts with 200:1 leverage, others only 50:1 leverage.
Find out the margin required.
4. What restrictions does your broker impose?
Now, I don't just mean margin and spread restrictions as I have mentioned above. These are important in their own right, what you need to find out are the details.
This is probably the most important question of all as the fine line between success and failure can be found in the details. Now you can have this questioned by one of two ways: 1. You can find out through experience (generally the most expensive way unless done through the demo account!); or 2. You ask your broker (the cheapest and best way).
Why is this so important? I hear you ask. Well let's say you have a system that trades any gaps that might form on Sunday at 1700 EST, but your broker does not open until 1730 EST. You either need to factor this restriction in to your system, or move onto another system completely. Or, you may have a system that has 10 pip stops, but you find out that your broker will only let you place 15 pip stops from your initial entry price. Once again you will need to change your system to see whether it still performs well, or throw out your system (or change your broker)!
In fact one of the most devastating restrictions imposed by FXCM is that they do not accept stop entry orders if price never happens to trade at your entry stop price! FXCM will honor and "take the loss" of your OPEN stop positions, but if the liquidity is not there and price has shot straight through your stop price then you will miss out. This can have disastrous effects on your system results as you are left wondering on trades where you made good returns - "Would FXCM have got me in?". You may want to read of some of the quirks I use when placing entry stop orders on FXCM that could be of huge benefit to you to help you possibly get around this problem.
The restrictions by your broker are only half your systems' success, you also need to find out about another more important restriction... yourself. This leads me to the final point...
5. What restrictions do you have?
This is a vitally important question. Most people test their systems and fall in love with the results but find when they trade their system they have lost their account and that most of the best signals occurred while they were sound asleep!
As the forex market is a 24 hour market, you need to put into place restrictions in your system that will be realisticly conducted by you during the course of a normal trading day. There is no use operating a trailing stop method that changes your stop points during times when you are asleep and cannot possibly do so.
I hope this article has made you aware of some of the important things that need to be known prior to testing your system.Article written by Ryan Sheehy from Currency Secrets.com. Where you will find reviews on forex data vendors, signal providers, brokers, and popular forex resources, along with more quality articles... all for f*ree!
Rabu, 10 Oktober 2007
Selasa, 09 Oktober 2007
Two Great Forex Indicators: Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements
Forex trading is a fascinating way of earning a living online, and if you are seriously considering entering this fascinating world of forex trading you must consider, by all means, the learning and understanding of a number of indicators that will give you invaluable help on predicting with a high probability the directions the forex market may take as you carefully analyze the price charts for any currency you are trading at the moment. Two of these important indicators are: "Bollinger Bands" and "Fibonacci Retracements".
The basic interpretation of "Bollinger Bands" is that prices tend to stay within the space formed by the tracings of the upper and lower bands. The distinctive characteristic of "Bollinger Bands" is that the spacing between the bands varies based on the volatility of the prices. During periods of extreme currency price changes (i.e., high volatility), the bands widen to become more forgiving. During periods of low volatility, the bands narrow to contain currency prices. The bands are plotted two standard deviations above and below a simple moving average. They indicate a "sell" when prices are above the moving average (or close to the upper band) and a "buy" when prices are below it (or close to the lower band). The bands are used by some forex traders in conjunction with other analyses, including RSI, MACD, CCI, and Rate of Change.
"Fibonacci retracement levels" are a sequence of numbers discovered by the noted mathematician Leonardo da Pisa during the twelfth century. These numbers describe cycles found throughout nature and when applied to technical analysis can be used to find pullbacks in the currency market. More information here; http://www.1-forex.com
"Fibonacci retracement levels" are a quite effective way to see the future (at least in the forex markets), i.e., it involves anticipating changes in trends as prices near the lines created by the Fibonacci studies. After a significant price move (either up or down), prices will often retrace a significant portion (if not all) of the original move. As prices retrace, support and resistance levels often occur at or near the "Fibonacci Retracement levels" (See my articles on "Fibonacci trading" for more detail about this).
In the currency markets, the commonly used sequence of ratios is 23.6 %, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. Fibonacci retracement levels can easily be displayed by connecting a trend line from a perceived high point to a perceived low point. By taking the difference between the high and low, the user can apply the % ratios to achieve the desired pullbacks.Adrian PabloForex Trader and Freelance Writerhttp://www.1-forex.com
The basic interpretation of "Bollinger Bands" is that prices tend to stay within the space formed by the tracings of the upper and lower bands. The distinctive characteristic of "Bollinger Bands" is that the spacing between the bands varies based on the volatility of the prices. During periods of extreme currency price changes (i.e., high volatility), the bands widen to become more forgiving. During periods of low volatility, the bands narrow to contain currency prices. The bands are plotted two standard deviations above and below a simple moving average. They indicate a "sell" when prices are above the moving average (or close to the upper band) and a "buy" when prices are below it (or close to the lower band). The bands are used by some forex traders in conjunction with other analyses, including RSI, MACD, CCI, and Rate of Change.
"Fibonacci retracement levels" are a sequence of numbers discovered by the noted mathematician Leonardo da Pisa during the twelfth century. These numbers describe cycles found throughout nature and when applied to technical analysis can be used to find pullbacks in the currency market. More information here; http://www.1-forex.com
"Fibonacci retracement levels" are a quite effective way to see the future (at least in the forex markets), i.e., it involves anticipating changes in trends as prices near the lines created by the Fibonacci studies. After a significant price move (either up or down), prices will often retrace a significant portion (if not all) of the original move. As prices retrace, support and resistance levels often occur at or near the "Fibonacci Retracement levels" (See my articles on "Fibonacci trading" for more detail about this).
In the currency markets, the commonly used sequence of ratios is 23.6 %, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. Fibonacci retracement levels can easily be displayed by connecting a trend line from a perceived high point to a perceived low point. By taking the difference between the high and low, the user can apply the % ratios to achieve the desired pullbacks.Adrian PabloForex Trader and Freelance Writerhttp://www.1-forex.com
Forex Trading: The Fastest And Greatest Way To Create True Wealth
If you search on the internet you'll find millions of investment programs such as real estate, stock trading, bond trading, mutual funds, CDs, auction programs and various internet programs.
I have not done many internet income opportunities or programs or affiliate programs because I had been lucky to discover a very easy way to make money through forex trading, (Foreign currency trading) safely on the internet.
Perhaps you know about only stock trading or bond trading which are common, but not forex trading.
Forex trading is the most profitable and attractive internet income opportunity because you can do it from home or office and from any country in the world.
In forex trading, you don't need to do any marketing or selling or internet promotion to succeed.
In currency forex trading, you don't need to spend thousands of dollars to do any internet promotion.
In forex online trading, you don't need any stocks or warehousing.
In forex online trading , all that you've to do is open an account with one of the brokers with as little as $300 or $2000.
Then follow simple instructions to buy and sell the currencies.
When the price of the currency is low, you buy.
In a few seconds or minutes, the price will go up, and you sell it and make a profit.
By so doing , in a day, you can easily make $500-$1000 by just buying, selling and trading these foreign currencies for about 3 or 4 hrs!
And get this:
You don't even have to be stuck sitting behind your computer buying and selling these foreign currencies.
You can enter all your buy trades and specify the sell prices you desire and then log off.
Whenever the values of these foreign currencies rise and your selling prices reach, the currencies will be automatically sold for you and you make money!
You can do currency forex trading and at the same time keep your day job, because in forex online trading, there is no work to do.
In the future when you have made hundreds of thousands of dollars, you may then quit your job and just keep doing currency forex trading forever and go on permanent vacation!
To understand the beauty of forex online trading Picture this:
In the morning, you get up from sleep at 6 am.
You go to your bathroom and have your shower.
At 7am, you hurry and eat your breakfast.
At 7.20 am, you login into your day forex trading account on the internet and spend 10 minutes to buy about 3 or 4 different currencies, [for example British Pound, Euro, CHF (Swiss Currency) and Yen (Japanese currency).]
You can specify the price at which you wish to sell each currency.
Then you can log off.
By 9 am, you're at work in your office or business place.
You do your job as usual and by 5 pm, you're finished and heading home.
When you get back home around 6.30 pm, you login into your day forex trading account to see how much money you've made.
Holy Molly, there in your account it says you have made $750!
"Is this for real?", you wonder…
Yes, it is. (Your eyes are not deceiving you…)
$750 in a day for just clicking your mouse twice and doing no work?
(Whereas at your job, you work 8 hrs, but make only probably $150..)
This is how easy it is to make money from day forex trading.
But before you use real money to open a live forex system trading account, you have to open a free trial (demo) account (forex simulation trading) and practice first, to understand how it works and to acquire the right skills.
This free demo (trial) forex system trading account (forex simulation trading) will help you to reduce a lot of risks that can lead to loss.
In forex system trading, you can choose how much money to invest, how much money to make and when to make it.
You can make money daily, 365 days all year from forex trading.
Your computer can be transformed into an "ATM" machine that cranks out cash for you daily (without large investment or hassles) from forex trading.
In day forex trading, you can choose what type of risk you can manage, when to invest and when not to invest.
In Currency forex trading, you're the boss. You may do as you please.
When day forex trading is compared to other investment programs such as stock trading, bond trading, mutual funds, real estate and regular business, it is evident that forex online trading is the fastest and greatest way to make money in the world.
Forex system trading is a 2.5 trillion dollars daily business and it is larger than all the stock trading in the world combined.
These are some of the reasons why I believe that forex system trading is the best internet income opportunity.
Perhaps from reading this article you'll now come to know why currency forex trading is the secret behind the greatest wealth on earth and why it has been kept hidden from the average people of the world and therefore little known to the masses.
May these forex trading insights open your eyes to the possibility of infinite wealth and success that can be yours from day forex trading.
Please feel free to print or publish this article anywhere and read and also send to your friends and well wishers and please preserve the author's resource box below.
Warmly,
Ikey BenneyI-key is the creator of "Mscsrrr, Millionaire Secret Cash System, The Royal Road To Riches, Generate $1,500 Weekly For Life" (http://www.mscsrrr.com ) and "TMT: Transcendental Mental Technology, The 10,000 Yr Old "Secret" Of Infinite Wealth, Infinite Success, Infinite Happiness, Revealed. (http://www.tmtworldwide.org )
I have not done many internet income opportunities or programs or affiliate programs because I had been lucky to discover a very easy way to make money through forex trading, (Foreign currency trading) safely on the internet.
Perhaps you know about only stock trading or bond trading which are common, but not forex trading.
Forex trading is the most profitable and attractive internet income opportunity because you can do it from home or office and from any country in the world.
In forex trading, you don't need to do any marketing or selling or internet promotion to succeed.
In currency forex trading, you don't need to spend thousands of dollars to do any internet promotion.
In forex online trading, you don't need any stocks or warehousing.
In forex online trading , all that you've to do is open an account with one of the brokers with as little as $300 or $2000.
Then follow simple instructions to buy and sell the currencies.
When the price of the currency is low, you buy.
In a few seconds or minutes, the price will go up, and you sell it and make a profit.
By so doing , in a day, you can easily make $500-$1000 by just buying, selling and trading these foreign currencies for about 3 or 4 hrs!
And get this:
You don't even have to be stuck sitting behind your computer buying and selling these foreign currencies.
You can enter all your buy trades and specify the sell prices you desire and then log off.
Whenever the values of these foreign currencies rise and your selling prices reach, the currencies will be automatically sold for you and you make money!
You can do currency forex trading and at the same time keep your day job, because in forex online trading, there is no work to do.
In the future when you have made hundreds of thousands of dollars, you may then quit your job and just keep doing currency forex trading forever and go on permanent vacation!
To understand the beauty of forex online trading Picture this:
In the morning, you get up from sleep at 6 am.
You go to your bathroom and have your shower.
At 7am, you hurry and eat your breakfast.
At 7.20 am, you login into your day forex trading account on the internet and spend 10 minutes to buy about 3 or 4 different currencies, [for example British Pound, Euro, CHF (Swiss Currency) and Yen (Japanese currency).]
You can specify the price at which you wish to sell each currency.
Then you can log off.
By 9 am, you're at work in your office or business place.
You do your job as usual and by 5 pm, you're finished and heading home.
When you get back home around 6.30 pm, you login into your day forex trading account to see how much money you've made.
Holy Molly, there in your account it says you have made $750!
"Is this for real?", you wonder…
Yes, it is. (Your eyes are not deceiving you…)
$750 in a day for just clicking your mouse twice and doing no work?
(Whereas at your job, you work 8 hrs, but make only probably $150..)
This is how easy it is to make money from day forex trading.
But before you use real money to open a live forex system trading account, you have to open a free trial (demo) account (forex simulation trading) and practice first, to understand how it works and to acquire the right skills.
This free demo (trial) forex system trading account (forex simulation trading) will help you to reduce a lot of risks that can lead to loss.
In forex system trading, you can choose how much money to invest, how much money to make and when to make it.
You can make money daily, 365 days all year from forex trading.
Your computer can be transformed into an "ATM" machine that cranks out cash for you daily (without large investment or hassles) from forex trading.
In day forex trading, you can choose what type of risk you can manage, when to invest and when not to invest.
In Currency forex trading, you're the boss. You may do as you please.
When day forex trading is compared to other investment programs such as stock trading, bond trading, mutual funds, real estate and regular business, it is evident that forex online trading is the fastest and greatest way to make money in the world.
Forex system trading is a 2.5 trillion dollars daily business and it is larger than all the stock trading in the world combined.
These are some of the reasons why I believe that forex system trading is the best internet income opportunity.
Perhaps from reading this article you'll now come to know why currency forex trading is the secret behind the greatest wealth on earth and why it has been kept hidden from the average people of the world and therefore little known to the masses.
May these forex trading insights open your eyes to the possibility of infinite wealth and success that can be yours from day forex trading.
Please feel free to print or publish this article anywhere and read and also send to your friends and well wishers and please preserve the author's resource box below.
Warmly,
Ikey BenneyI-key is the creator of "Mscsrrr, Millionaire Secret Cash System, The Royal Road To Riches, Generate $1,500 Weekly For Life" (http://www.mscsrrr.com ) and "TMT: Transcendental Mental Technology, The 10,000 Yr Old "Secret" Of Infinite Wealth, Infinite Success, Infinite Happiness, Revealed. (http://www.tmtworldwide.org )
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